Portfolio Review & Thesis
Holdings, Strategy etc...
Have had quite a few questions recently about my strategy, portfolio and thesis and I thought I would share my portfolio holdings that I typically do not share on X here with Substack subscribers as a thank you.
Strategy:
I typically buy 3 types of stocks
Opportunistic Investments in Oversold Names
Long-Term Compounders
Good R/R with Clear Catalysts
Hurdle Rate: Beat the QQQ by a comfortable margin
This would vary based on what I view the risk of my current portfolio holdings to be. i.e.: Beta of my Stocks to QQQ
I will let my positions compound over time and am not afraid for it to be a substantial portion of my holdings. However, I will typically try to limit any one holding to 30% of my total portfolio size.
I typically hold between 6-15 positions, with the top 6-8 positions making up >80% of the portfolio size.
I am not afraid to go through drawdowns as I understand it is part-and-parcel of owning higher beta stocks. However, I will hedge with options should I see a sustained decline. Also, as things get euphoric, I will raise more cash or move to MAG7 that I view to be more reasonably priced.
Current Holdings (By Size):
Tesla
Sea Limited
Mercado Libre
Grab Holdings
Robinhood
Coinbase
Square
Hims and Hers
Talkspace
Pinduoduo
(1-6 are core positions, 7-10 are trades/starter positions)
Thesis
Tesla
Along with Sea Limited, an outsized position in the portfolio.
Valuation is obviously pretty crazy, with the stock trading at 100+ P/E multiples. However, I think with a stock like Tesla, there is always a premium given by the market as a result of the Elon factor.
Tesla has not been an EV story for 2-3 years, its future is fully dependent on FSD, Robotaxis and Optimus. I believe each of these are an order of magnitude larger in terms of profitability and TAM.
I tend to be less bullish than the Tesla maxis and less bearish than the average Tesla observer. Even through that lens, I view Tesla to be a generational company that, of the MAG7, provides perhaps the best R/R scenario for the next decade.
I will trim as the stock gets over-extended.
Sea Limited
My second largest position, and one that I have been vocally bullish on for over a year now.
I view Sea Limited as the No.1 Southeast Asian company by far in terms of fundamentals, potential, and management.
I have written at length about the potential of the Southeast Asian economy in the coming decades. I believe Sea Limited is in pole position to benefit from this as the company currently operates from the greatest position of strength in its history.
Garena is back to 30% growth, Shopee continues to grow market share (>50% now) while being at a critical inflection point for profitability, SeaMoney has perhaps the longest runway with 2/3 of SEAsians unbanked/underbanked.
The stock is up >200% in the past year and would seem to be over-extended to most. However, I believe it was severely undervalued by the market at <$40 and is currently at just under fair value. I intend to continue holding shares as long as management continues to perform.
Mercado Libre
Probably the company I have least worries about in this portfolio.
Typical concerns regarding MELI include currency devaluation, political instability etc…
All of which has happened in the past 2 decades. Yet, MELI has shown its ability to compound growth at 20-30% for that entire period, in spite of those concerns.
I have no plans to sell a single share for the foreseeable future.
Grab Holdings
Have owned Grab since the low 3s, and currently up about 80% on my position. It is a long-term play, with the main focus being the GFin business and economic tailwinds from the Southeast Asian landscape.
I probably know Grab as well as anyone on FinTwit and it has helped me to see past the bulls who perceive $10 in 1 year as achievable. It was severely undervalued at $3, much less so now.
Grab’s fair value is likely between $6-7 and I view this to be a long-term compounder that can return 20+% per year for the next decade.
Robinhood
I first entered this name around October 2023 with the main thesis being a bet on Vlad and optimistic animal spirits coming back post-2021 bubble bursting.
Far to say it has exceeded all my expectations in terms of stock returns and company execution.
My thesis was always a reversion to the mean, with my main EOY target of $38. It has since been hit and I have reduced my initial position by ~50%.
However, with how well the company has executed and the potential of the business moving forward, I am leaning towards holding at least 30% of my initial shares through the inevitable bear market.
Coinbase
Entered this name at a similar time to Robinhood with a similar thesis but with a twist: my guess was Crypto is NOT dead yet and will be back even crazier than ever.
Coinbase is an exceptionally well-run company that is top of the class in Crypto. Brian Armstrong is one of the few CEOs that are truly special in terms of his first-principles thinking and willingness to be a contrarian thinker.
However, it is undoubtedly a cyclical company, with transaction revenues responsible for >50% of revenues.
In my view, Crypto bull run will come to an end and Coinbase will see a 90% drawdown in transaction revenues and a subsequent 80% fall in the stock.
I intend to sell out of my entire position in 2025 and likely re-enter in 2026.
The cyclicality of the business will eventually change when services revenues generate >80% of the business’ revenues, which could be possible in 2028.
Square
A short-term trade with technicals lining up perfectly.
Fundamentals have improved significantly in the past 1 year and while I believe Jack Dorsey is a sub-par CEO, his obsession with Bitcoin will probably lead to Square outperformance as Bitcoin goes parabolic.
I will likely exit this business in 2025.
Hims and Hers
Cost basis is ~$15 and I’ve taken out my initials and more.
Currently still doing my own research on the company to determine if this is deserving of a long-term hold.
Talkspace
This is mostly a de-SPAC trade that has worked out well for me.
Technicals is forming a huge cup-and-handle formation that I think could propel the stock higher.
Will likely elaborate on the fundamental thesis in a future post.
Pinduoduo
My newest position, just started 2 days ago.
I tend to invest a starter position and then begin researching it thoroughly. Skin in the game helps with urgency.
I believe it is the best China stock in the market and trades at an extremely conservative valuation (10x P/E) with 30% of MC in Cash.
It also has one of the best setups due to its main business being a moderately growing business but a new business line (Temu) that is growing rapidly, which the market currently overlooks.
This is very similar to APP which has run 900% this year.
Future Plans
As I mentioned on X, I will be shifting a substantial portion of my portfolio towards MAG7 companies in 2025 in view of the quite frankly insane year that higher beta stocks have had in particular.
Of the MAG7 companies, my favourites are TSLA, META, AMZN.
Feel free to reach out to my DMs on X or comment on this post with any questions you might have. Thanks for reading!
The content presented is for informational and academic purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis and opinions expressed are based on research and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.